Soccer is very much a game of chance. One errant pass, one mistaken handball, one foot slip, can dramatically change fates. Just as Queequeg’s “heavy oaken sword” ruled how a “sword mat” was woven — Moby Dick reference! — “easy, indifferent” chance can decide everything — league titles, cup and playoff qualifications, promotions and relegations — and sometimes a few millimeters is the distance between misery and joy.
In the upcoming months, luck may play a huge role in deciding the fates of several National Women’s Soccer League (NWSL) teams as the league enters the second half of the 2025 season.
So how does a fan easily assess the potential impact that these moments may have on the future of the NWSL or any other soccer league?
Well fortunately 4-or-More, the handy guide to any soccer league, helps gauge chance’s role in a season.
As described previously, 4-or-More simply uses the points earned during a season to group teams into performance tiers. Tiers are determined by any four-or-more point differences in league standings. For example, as of July 29th, 2025, every NWSL team has played 13 matches and according to 4-or-More there are four tiers.
Tier | Teams (Points) | Race Status |
|---|---|---|
Tier 1 | Kansas City Current (33) | Breakaway Leader |
Tier 2 | Orlando Pride (25), San Diego Wave (24), Washington Spirit (23), Portland Thorns (22), Seattle Reign (21), Racing Louisville (20), Gotham FC (18), North Carolina Courage (18), Bay FC (15), Angel City FC (15) | The Main Pack |
Tier 3 | Houston Dash (11) | Drop Off 1 |
Tier 4 | Chicago Stars (6), Utah Royals (5) | Drop Off 2 |
Currently, the league is on break for international games, so the big questions leading into the second half the season which restarts on August 1st are:
Which team is going to win the NWSL Shield, the award for earning the most points?
Which teams will qualify for the NWSL Championship playoffs that will be held at the end of the season?
4-or-more can easily help answer these questions. No fancy stats or complicated computer prediction programs are needed. Just find the four point cut-offs. They systematically help gauge where randomness may rule the weaving of a season’s woof and warp – another Moby Dick reference!
Typically, any team within a tier is often equally affected by chance as any other in the same tier. So, if a team is in the top tier than a deflected shot, an off-side toe, or some other fluke could help that team stumble in or out of a league title spot. In contrast, teams outside of a cut-off probably need at least two weeks of luck — good or bad — and skill to move up or down a tier.
Thus, according to 4-or-more, the Kansas City Current has a great chance of winning the 2025 NWSL Shield. In theory, the second-place team, the Orlando Pride would need two straight wins combined with two straight Current losses to even climb into the top Tier and within striking distance of the winning the Shield.
Could it happen? Of course, but it would take much more than just luck. It would probably take a pretty big Current collapse combined with some Orlando magic (pun intended)!
Regarding the playoffs, right now the ten, Tier 2 teams — Orlando, San Diego, Washington, Portland, Seattle, Louisville, Gotham FC, North Carolina, Bay FC, and Angel City FC — all have a good chance of getting one of the remaining seven playoff spots. Hence, luck could play a huge role in which of these teams make the post-season.
Next, the Houston Dash are out of playoff contention but with a week or two of good luck and good performances they could rejoin the hunt.
Finally, Chicago and Utah are way out of the luck zone. They would probably need many weeks – three to four – of good fortunes and good play to even join the race.
Note: Interestingly, Racing Louisville could help decide a lot with four straight upcoming games against the best “eye test” teams so far: Kansas City (Aug 1), Orlando (Aug 9), Washington (Aug 15), and San Diego (Aug 24).
In summary, it looks like the real action will center on which teams make the 2025 NSWL playoffs. In the next few weeks, chance — ruled by the soccer gods or Queequeg’s “heavy oaken sword” — may strongly determine which teams are in and which ones are out.
Woohoo!!!
Hope you EnJOY!
- The Middle-Aged Slacker