Soccer is played in thirds. There’s a defensive third, a middle third, and an attacking third. They divide fields of play and define states of mind. But thirds can also be used to describe a season. For the National Women’s Soccer League (NWSL), the 2025 season has just moved from the opening to the middle third and, according to the 4-or-More rule, it looks like things are shifting. The season is shedding its clumpy, wide-open, anything-is-possible shape and taking on a very Tour de Francy feel as the race for league title splits teams up.
Here’s what all that means. First, the 4-or-More rule is a handy-dandy guide for following soccer leagues. Teams are grouped into performance tiers separated by four or more points in the standings.
Let’s take the current standings. As of June 4th, every team has played 10 of 26 scheduled games and according to 4-or-More, there are three tiers.
Tier | Teams (points) | Race Status |
|---|---|---|
Tier 1 | Kansas City Current (24) | Lead Group |
Tier 2 | San Diego Wave (20), Orlando Pride (19), Washington Spirit (19), Portland Thorns (16), Seattle Reign FC (14), Angel City FC (14), Racing Louisville (14), Gotham FC (12), North Carolina Courage (12), Bay FC (12), and Houston Dash (11) | The Main Pack |
Tier 3 | Utah Royals (5) and Chicago Stars (4) | The Drop Offs |
So, at this stage, Kansas City has the best shot at finishing the in first place and all the Tier 2 teams have a good shot at the qualifying for one of the top eight playoff spots. Meanwhile, Utah and Chicago will need at least a couple of weeks of good performances and good luck to just catch the main pack and reach striking distance of the playoffs.
Here’s why things are feeling Tour de Francey. Just two matchdays ago (May 16th), there were only two Tiers, and the race looked more wide open.
Tiers | Teams (points) | Race Status |
|---|---|---|
Tier 1 | Kansas City Current (18), Orlando Pride (16), Washington Spirit (15), San Diego Wave (14), Angel City FC (14), Portland Thorns (13), Gotham FC (12), Seattle Reign FC (11), Racing Louisville (11), Houston Dash (10), North Carolina Courage (9), and Bay FC (8). | The Main Pack |
Tier 2 | Utah Royals (4) and Chicago Stars (4) | The Drop Offs |
This kind of shifting happens a lot in The Tour de France. In fact, it’s kind of reminiscent of what sometimes happens when the tour enters the foothills of a big mountain stage. The main pack, or “peloton,” starts to shrink, stretch out, and split apart as the pace gradually rises, trial ballon attacks are cautiously launched, and riders prepare for the big climb.
As the 2025 NWSL rolls through these midseason foothills, things may also change, and every upcoming game looks interesting, and the big questions are:
Can the main pack reel in Kansas City or will the Current extend their lead?
Will another main pack team “cross the gap” and join The Current? San Diego, Orlando, and Washington all look like they are lining up for an attack.
Do Utah and Chicago have any chance of recovering? Or have they “cracked” and should start planning for next season?
Woohoo!!
Hope you enJOY!
Sincerely,
The Middle-Aged Slacker