For the past few weeks, the race for the 2025 National Women’s Soccer League (NWSL) title has remained stable but that may change greatly. According to 4-or-More, a slacker’s guide to soccer, this weekend offers a few key “fault line” games that could reshape the league’s performance pecking order; lower some teams perceived playoff chances; and help fans quickly select which games to watch or follow from an overwhelmingly appealing schedule.
What does all this mean?
As described in an earlier article, the NWSL is currently rolling through the middle third of its season and the race for the title has taken on a very simple shape and a very Tour de France-like feel. As of June 13, 2025, every team has played 11 out its 26 scheduled games and, according to 4-or-More, there are three performance tiers.
Tier | Teams (points) | Race Status |
|---|---|---|
Tier 1 | Kansas City Current (27 points) | Breakaway Leader |
Tier 2 | Orlando Pride (22), Washington Spirit (22), San Diego Wave (20), Seattle Reign (17), Racing Louisville (17), Portland Thorns (16), Bay FC (15), Angel City (15), Gotham FC (12), North Carolina Courage (12), and Houston Dash (11) | The Main |
Tier 3 | Utah Royals (5), Chicago Stars (5) | The Drop Offs |
At first glance, this means that every game this upcoming weekend is important, and the top storylines can still be framed in Tour de Francey terms:
Will the Current extend its lead or can the main pack “reel it back”?
Can a main pack team “cross the gap” and join Kansas City in the lead group? Conversely, will any of the main pack teams begin to “fall off the back”?
Can Utah and Chicago have any chance of catching up? Or have they “hit the wall”?
But a closer look at Tier 2, suggests there are couple of potential fault lines — where teams are separated in the standings by three points — that could break up the main pack and greatly lower the apparent chances that some teams will have for making the playoffs.
The first one lies between the San Diego Wave (20) and the two next teams: the Seattle Reign (17) and Racing Louisville (17). Here, a win by San Diego combined with ties by Seattle and Louisville would create at least one new performance tier. Call it a “chase group”, it would include San Diego, the Orlando Pride and the Washington Spirit and its main objective would be to catch the leader, Kansas City.
The second one lies a little farther down with Bay FC (15) and Angel City (15) on one side and Gotham FC (12) and North Carolina Courage (12) on the other. Intriguingly, Angel City plays North Carolina this weekend. So, wins by Bay FC and Angel City combined with a tie by Gotham FC would create a new drop off tier, comprised of Gotham, North Carolina, and Houston. Joining this new group means that the teams are now out of playoff of contention…or, they will need at least two weekends in a row of favorable results to overcome the four-point gap that would separate them from the nearest playoff contenders.
Wait…what?! Yes, that’s correct. There’s a decent chance that Gotham — the 2023 NWSL Champion, a 2024 NWSL Championship Semifinalist, and the 2025 Concacaf W Champions Cup — and North Carolina — a 2024 playoff contestant — could be out of the playoff picture after this weekend’s games. Makes the idea of following their upcoming matches more interesting, eh?
Fun stuff!
Hope you enjoy!
- The Middle-Aged Slacker